Greens challenge von der Leyen to debate them in Maastricht

Your essential companion on the #EU2024 campaign trail.
By EDDY WAX
Send ideas here | Tweet @EddyWax | View in your browser
DEBATE ME, URSULA! The European Greens have issued a full-frontal public challenge to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the first major debate of the EU election campaign looms. Europarties will convene on April 29 at a performing arts theater in the Dutch city of Maastricht for a debate between lead candidates jointly organized by POLITICO and Studio Europa — but there is still feverish speculation about who will show up on the night.
Gauntlet thrown down: “Ursula von der Leyen is claiming to defend European democracy, yet she has refused to run in the European Parliament elections, and has failed to
clarify whether she will participate in any of the election debates,” writes Greens’ co-chief candidate Bas Eickhout, a Dutch MEP who’ll represent his party on the night. 
We wanna know your thoughts: “European citizens deserve to know which plans and ideas their leaders have for the future of Europe. Debating these ideas and being accountable is a cornerstone of European democracy,” he said in a statement shared exclusively with Playbook. 
Three big empty chairs? Von der Leyen and her EPP party have not yet officially committed to take part in the Maastricht debate. But neither has the Party of European Socialists, according to the list of publicly confirmed debaters on the website. The ECR won’t take part.
The Parliament will host another debate organized by the European Broadcasting Union (the people behind Eurovision) on May 23. Will any of the candidates burst into song? (Hopefully not.)
HELLO. There are 55 days until June 6. Minds are turning not only to the election campaign proper, but to what will happen after. This week I want to walk through the crucial steps of the next few months as the EU reshuffles its leadership.
HOW TO FOLLOW THE ELECTION YEAR LIKE A BOSS: Waking up bleary-eyed on Monday, June 10, we should have a strong sense of the election results. That’s when the real discussions about top EU jobs will begin in earnest. EU leaders will have three chances in June to get behind one person they will nominate as the next European Commission president. 
The Italian Job (talk): In the week after the European elections, the top EU brass will have a chance to discuss the jobs puzzle on the margins of the G7 summit in Apulia between June 13 and 15. According to my colleague Barbara Moens, there’s an expectation among EU diplomats that European Council President Charles Michel will take advantage of the Italian meet-up to test some options with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni before the informal meeting on June 17. It’s up to Michel to broker a compromise between the 27 European leaders. 
Second round, ding ding: Then there will be a so-called informal EU summit on June 17 in Brussels, where leaders guided by Michel will — officially at least — discuss the package of powerful roles. 
Third time’s a charm? Leaders will then meet again in Brussels on June 27 and 28 for another European Council get-together. The hope of EU diplomats is to have a sense of the top jobs ready by that meeting at the end of June. Michel’s own job is squarely in the mix. He managed to train the focus on his flip-flop to run as a candidate for the European parliamentary election in June, and then his later decision to not do that, triggering discussions about his successor between leaders and their entourages already earlier this spring. 
Attention turns to the Parliament: After a solid month of European Council speculation in June, heads will turn to Strasbourg. On Tuesday, July 16 the Parliament will kick off its new term, with 720 lawmakers. But their priority won’t be voting on a new Commission president — it’ll be voting on their own president! Other than that, they will mostly spend three days deciding who the vice-presidents will be in the powerful bureau, and who will run which committee. Hold on for a real nail-biter about who the third vice-president of the petitions committee will be! (Joke). 
This will also be prime time for negotiations in Parliament about forming new political groups. Which national parties will switch groups and hop from EPP to ECR, from Renew to EPP, from the Left to S&D … etc, etc. 
The big question is when the Parliament will schedule the vote to confirm the European Council’s nominee for the Commission president. There are different voices and strategies in Parliament. Remember von der Leyen — or whoever is the Council’s nominee — will need to hit the magic number of 361 votes in a secret vote by MEPs. But when that happens is more a question of political will — and the European Council would hate it if it had to wait until September. There’s a significant groundswell of support in Parliament for holding off on the vote until the mid-September plenary, giving MEPs more time to pressure von der Leyen into concessions — but this extra pressure cooker time could play into the hands of a strong right-wing surge, to the detriment of the Socialists and Greens. 
An awkward August? Depending on how the results of the elections go, EU leaders might want to pressure for a quick fire vote in July. If it’s von der Leyen, the vote is already expected to be very tight as it was for her 5 years ago when she really only scraped by. Would she want to use the summer wining and dining MEPs and sweet talking skeptical political parties? Or could those extra two months of waiting hurt her, with scandals swirling and doubts about her political direction mounting … 
In a nutshell:  The Parliament’s timetable could be its major powerplay. There’s a growing consensus around the Parliament — a place that’s increasingly hostile to the Commission, what with the Hungary lawsuit and Piepergate vote — that the vote won’t take place until September, but cool heads in Parliament say they don’t want to create unnecessary instability either. 
Popcorn at the ready: With the Commission president having received nominations from national governments for their commissioners, and selected them for different portfolios, the Parliament will hold hearings for all 27 commissioner-designates, grilling them on whether they’re up to the task. The EP has upped the ante this year, and is demanding a full organization chart of the 27 and their roles before the hearings start. The EP also beefed up the way it holds the maximum four-hour marathon grillings, making them more streamlined and political, with questions grouped by political faction.  
Last things: Then, probably around November, MEPs will hold a vote on the College of Commissioners as a whole — which won’t be a secret ballot. The Commission can crack on with the job providing the vote goes in its favor! 
Can Danish immigration policy come in from the cold?
On a gray April evening in Copenhagen, voters and European election candidates braved the rain to talk about political priorities at the cozy Vanløse community center in the northwest of the city. 
Two months out from the EU elections, local resident Betty Dederding, a retired railway worker, said she wanted to see the EU band together in the face of Russia and China to stop them “dominating” and “creating a new world order.”
“I think it is very important because you feel so much fear in your chest,” she said.
The attendees and the election candidates discussed the war in Ukraine and Denmark’s firm support for Kyiv. They discussed climate change and the way it could trigger higher levels of migration towards Europe. The consensus in the Vanløse community center was that Denmark’s hard line on border controls under Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and her predecessor Lars Løkke Rasmussen had served the country well and should continue. 
For much of the past twenty years, Danish immigration policy was seen as a fringe affair, a testing ground for far-right ideas which other European nations often viewed as beyond the pale.
But these days, some of those ideas are spreading. The U.K.’s plan to process asylum cases in Rwanda echoes an earlier Danish idea. Sweden’s —and increasingly Germany’s — toughening attitude toward EU and national-level border controls has long been mainstream in Copenhagen. 
When it comes to the integration of immigrants, Prime Minister Frederiksen has backed Denmark’s so-called “ghetto laws” which have singled out some areas with a large immigrant population for special rules, including mandatory 25 hours a week of preschool for children. Some housing blocks have been emptied and either upgraded (to be rented out again for a higher price) or knocked down. 
Such an area —  called Mjølnerparken —  lies just east of Vanløse and is in the process of being redeveloped and some of its residents have already been moved out. 
One local resident — Camellia Thorsson, a 24-year-old health care worker out walking with her young child — said the disruption might be worth it if crime rates fall. 
“I am hopeful but it is too early to say,” she said. 
Residents in Copenhagen have heard the rumors that Prime Minister Frederiksen could be in line for a top job in Brussels — European Council President — if her fellow European leaders decide that her tough stance on immigration and integration doesn’t go too far.
Emilie Høj, a 23-year-old resident of Vanløse running a coffee shop opposite the community center was largely positive about Frederiksen’s time running the country. 
“Being prime minister is a hard job, but I think she’s doing pretty well,” Høj said. 
By Charlie Duxbury
According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls seat projection, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) would trail behind the European People’s Party (EPP) if the election were held now. The Identity and Democracy (ID) is polling in third place, ahead of the Renew group and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).
Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats are in an uncommonly comfortable position.
The Danish socialist party is polling at about 20 percent. If the June election were held now, that would make it Denmark’s largest party with four EU lawmakers, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls seat projection.
That’s a rare thing for the EU’s social democrats, who despite making up the second-largest group in the EU Parliament, don’t top many national polls. Just a handful other countries, including Romania and neighboring Sweden, are in the same boat.
Frederiksen’s party has come out of nearly every EU election in the past 20 years as one of the country’s leading parties — albeit not always as the leading ideology. And while several EU countries are expecting a far-right victory in the June election, Denmark’s Social Democrats appear to have clawed back votes since the Danish People’s Party’s (DF) win in 2014.
VDL TO HOMETOWN AND RIGA: EPP lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen is on her way to her home city of Hildesheim, in lower Saxony, today to give a campaign speech. Then on Monday she’ll be in the Latvian capital “to talk about security & defense, youth, women’s rights, and more,” according to her campaign spokesperson Alexander Winterstein.
SCHMIT TO PRAGUE, BUDAPEST: Her rival, Nicolas Schmit, the lead candidate for the socialists, will visit the Czech Republic on Saturday to give a speech at the conference of the social democracy party, before traveling to Budapest to meet the Democratic Coalition and its leader Ferenc Gyurcsány, and Kata Tüttő, an MEP candidate from the Hungarian Socialist Party MSZP, and to give a speech.
Orbán challenger to run, eyes EPP: Péter Magyar, the former ally of Viktor Orbán, who has turned against him and drawn huge crowds onto the streets, registered a party on Thursday night to run in the European election, Reuters reports. The party is called Respect and Freedom and he has said that it would join the EPP in Parliament.
MEP Balázs Hidvéghi, perhaps the most fluent of Viktor Orbán’s Brussels-based orators, will return to the Hungarian parliament after the EU Parliament’s term ends, pending a seat freeing up there, Playbook understands. 
After the Sweden Democrats … The right-wing Danish Democrats party wants to join the ECR group, if they are elected to the Parliament, DR reports.
Wilders’ list: Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party list is out. Its top name is local and provincial councilor Sebastiaan Stöteler. Wilders himself is the ‘list pusher’ as the Dutch call it, at the final spot number 20, my colleague Koen Verhelst tells me. Wilders is also dropping his idea of pushing for a Nexit.
Greek left holds primaries: Μain opposition SYRIZA unveiled this week a list of 200 candidates who will compete in preliminary elections this Sunday, with the aim of representing the party in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June. The aim, the party says, “is to create a euro candidate list made by society, for society,” but the list includes many political figures, athletes and TV stars, my colleague Nektaria Stamouli tells me.
Footballer MEP switches flanks: The Greek MEP Theodoros Zagorakis — a former champion international footballer who has been sitting with the center-right New Democracy party — will be a candidate with the Socialists PASOK party. The announcement last Sunday was made as he was still an MEP with the conservatives. Neither the EPP political group nor New Democracy issued a statement that he was expelled. His name just disappeared from EPP’s website. New Democracy officials said his expulsion happened automatically.
Skyttedal’s move raises eyebrows in EPP: The presidency of the EPP group will next week discuss a move by Swedish Christian Democrat MEP Sara Skyttedal to break away from the center-right family and forge a new electoral alliance in Sweden called “Folklistan” (meaning “people’s list”) for the election. It includes a social democrat and politicians from a range of other backgrounds. Folklistan is not part of the EPP. 
In ‘t mix: Dutch MEP Sophie in ‘t Veld made it onto the list of candidates for the election in Belgium, having secured the requisite backing of 5 MPs. She and German MEP Damian Boeselager were unveiled as the lead candidates for pan-EU party Volt last weekend. 
BORRELL RULES HIMSELF OUT, RIBERA TIPPED AS COMMISSIONER: The EU’s top diplomat ruled himself out of running as an MEP, after rumors began spreading he would be on the Socialist party’s list for June. He said it would be “irresponsible” to run while his mandate is still active, according to El Confidencial. Green Transition Minister Teresa Ribera is now expected to top the list, according to El Independiente. That suggests she’s Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s pick for the Berlaymont. But she told POLITICO in January she didn’t want a Brussels gig. Funny how things change … Hat tip to Stuart Lau.
POLITICO’s Leyla Aksu and Paul Dallison have made another playlist of songs to get you in the mood for the election. This week’s has some top tunes from Denmark. Here it is. Enjoy.
MEP trivia: This week I’d like to know which country has the most MEPs who are not attached to a political grouping in the European Parliament. Answers by email, please. I love hearing from readers so don’t hesitate to get in touch. 
Last week, I asked you to name countries holding other elections at the same time as the European election. I was deluged with more than 20 emails so thank you all for those! 
Congratulations to … European Horizons’ Lukasz Kazmierczak and the European Parliament’s Andrew Hillman were among the first of many readers to mention Belgium (which holds federal and regional elections in June), both Political Intelligence’s Guénolé Carré and Frontex’s Antonis Stylianou pointed out that Cyprus is holding EIGHT elections on the same day in June, Stefcho Stanev told me that Bulgaria will hold national parliamentary elections at the same time as the EU ones, and Schuttelaar’s Steven Odding gets an honorary mention for saying Belgium and Bulgaria too; top journalist Katalin Halmai noted that Hungary will hold municipal elections in June too, while Ipsos’ Matthieu Gallard and diplomat Doris Manu pointed out Romania holds local elections at the same time as EU ones. Ireland will hold local elections at the same time, Paul Cullen wrote in to say.
Casual reminder: We’re also on WhatsApp! Follow our account here to stay up to date on the latest European election news in between Playbook editions.
Current election excitement level: Debating drama! 
Last word: Bas Eickhout said: “Why is von der Leyen hiding instead of defending her position? Especially with EPP actively undermining key legislation such as the Green Deal, we expect von der Leyen to show up and be held accountable on the issues she once championed.”
THANKS TO: Khushbu Shah, Stuart Lau, Koen Verhelst and Barbara Moens.
SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters